09181 Assessing and Mitigating Hazards Specific to a Situation

It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him. — J.R.R. Tolkien, The Hobbit

Assessing the risks of your specific life situation is essential to the observation required for good permaculture design. If you live on the Great Plains of the United States, you don’t need to understand and implement hurricane preparations. You would be unwise to ignore preparing for tornadoes, severe windstorms, hail, and prairie fire (depending on exactly where you live and the circumstances of your dwelling).

In general, universal risks include —

  • Weather/climate problems
  • Earth issues (earthquakes, mudslides, sinkholes)
  • Crime/violence
  • Disease
  • Pollution (water, air, food)
  • Risks relating to invisible structures (governments, state failure, etc.)
  • Animals
  • Flooding
  • Fire
  • Accidents
  • Peak Oil
  • War
  • Technology
  • Environmental
  • Economic
  • Systemic Crisis/Failure (temporary or permanent collapse of civilization)

By observation, you decide which of these risks apply in your situation and to what degree, since all risks are not created equal. In analyzing these hazards, it may be useful to classify them based on the danger the risk represents and the likelihood of it happening.

  • Risks with major personal/household impact, low probability of happening.
  • Risks with minor personal/household impact, low probability of happening
  • Risks with major personal/household impact, medium probability of happening.
  • Risks with minor personal/household impact, medium probability of happening
  • Risks with major personal/household impact, high probability of happening.
  • Risks with minor personal/household impact, high probability of happening

The “high probability of happening” risks, both major and minor, should receive the most attention. None of the other risks should be completely ignored.

Each hazard needs a plan:

  • Can I eliminate or avoid this risk?
  • If not, how much can I reduce this risk?
  • How can I minimize the risk of damage from this risk?
  • If the hazard is something like a tornado, which can’t be avoided if it occurs, how do I protect from this hazard?
  • How do I recover afterwards from the damage of the hazard?

Apply this process rigorously to each hazard on your list. Drill down to the level of detail that makes sense for each hazard.

Don’t leave anything out.