09121 Punctuated Equilibrium
What quarrel, what harshness, what unbelief in each other can subsist in the presence of a great calamity, when all the artificial vesture of our life is gone, and we are all one with each other in primitive mortal needs? — George Eliot
Punctuated equilibrium is a biological theory which proposes that most species change slowly, if at all, for long periods of time and then undergo rapid periods of change before settling down to a new form. Besides biology, we also use the term to describe sudden and often calamitous changes in human societies. Like species, societies may continue for periods of time with little change and suddenly experience times of upheaval and change leading to a drastic change in circumstances.
The American Revolution of 1776, the French Revolution of 1789, the Russian Revolution of 1917, and the fall of the Soviet Empire in 1989-90 are examples of this process. More recently, the financial crisis of 2008 was a time of punctuated financial equilibrium. We have yet to recover from that event, and it may mark a permanent decline in our economy and standards of living.
It is likely that other such moments of punctuated equilibrium are ahead of us.
Many people came through the financial crisis of 2008 just fine.
But others didn’t come through that financial crisis just fine. They lost their jobs, their retirement plans, their savings, their homes. Some of them went from middle class lifestyles to living in homeless shelters or shacks and tents in our own American version of the favelas and barrios of Latin America.
Is your life at risk of punctuated equilibrium?
If you had to get up from your sofa, walk out the door, and flee —
- Where would you go?
- Who would you go there with?
- What would you take with you?
- What would happen to you when you got there?
This is what punctuated equilibrium is about — a sudden and catastrophic change in your circumstances. The catastrophe could be small and localized to your building — or your neighborhood — or your city. It could be statewide or nationwide or a world wide disaster.
What do you need to meet this challenge?
You need a permaculture design for your life that incorporates the possibility of sudden catastrophic change for the worse as a contingency to be planned and prepared for. Included within that design is an emergency response plan that considers the possible hazards and threats in your area and describes how you will respond in the event of the potential catastrophes for your area. The time to prepare a disaster plan is before the catastrophe hits.
You need a psychological understanding that will allow you to realize when a greater-than-normal change is in progress that may have a catastrophic effect on you and your household. By having a plan in place, you can avoid panic and fear and respond proactively to protect yourself and those you love from the crisis.
You need a bug-out bag with essential items in it already packed and ready to just grab and go. Everyone in the household needs a bug-out bag. You need a bug-out book bag with certain essential books in it. If you have pets, they need a bug-out bag too.
You need a shelter in place plan if it is not possible to flee and the outside environment has become hazardous.
You need connections in your community, networks of support and commitment. The time to develop such connections and relationships is before the catastrophe hits.