09061 Three Effects of Infrastructure Failure

We have also arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for a while, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces. — Carl Sagan

This chapter continues my discussion of the work of Vinay Gupta and his Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps, together with my own thoughts on coping with the risk of infrastructure and service failure.

There are three primary consequences of infrastructure failure:

• the service becomes unavailable,
• the price for the service increases,
• the quality of the service decreases.

The service becomes unavailable.

When weather or terrorists or neglect destroys power plants or takes down transmission lines, electricity will not be distributed through a grid. The infrastructure fails. Water stops flowing. Sewer systems stop working. The electrical and natural gas grids go down. This has immediate negative consequences for public health and safety.

If the interruption is for a short period of time, these consequences are only minor irritations. If it is long-lasting and widespread, it becomes life threatening. Other problems, such as weather, can quickly exacerbate a problem like this and make it even more dangerous to health and safety.

The price of the service increases.

The value of the money may decline. The cost of inputs and personnel may increase. The quantity of service available may decrease while the demand increases. All of this adds up to higher prices. This is the default response of our economic system for slow-moving infrastructure crises like peak oil, water scarcity, etc. The price increase may be a rational economic response to the context of the problem. It can be a rationing method by which the rent-seeking elites ensure that they have plenty of whatever is in scarce supply, at the expense of those who can’t afford the new prices.

The quality of the services decreases.

Water may continue to flow through a distribution system. The purification systems may not work, or may work imperfectly. Power supply may be intermittent and fluctuate, with frequent brownouts and blackouts. This often happens unevenly in a geographic area. It may be subject to finagling by those with access to political power. For example, those in charge of the utilities may allow the quality of services in low income areas to degrade, while maintaining the quality of services to upper income elite areas. If the decline in quality happens uniformly everywhere, it is likely the precursor of a total failure of an infrastructure system.

All three of these consequences may be at play in any given crisis.

People in some areas may have no services at all.

People in some areas may see price increases coupled with a decline in the quality of the service(s).

Everyone may experience periods without the service (such as rotating blackouts).

We can protect ourselves from the consequences of infrastructure failure by —

Demand Destruction. We reduce our dependence upon infrastructure in advance of service problems. We insulate our dwellings, use passive solar, install wind generators and PV panels. We plant edible landscaping, start gardens, and develop direct relationships with farmers.

Redundancy. We develop back-ups for important systems. For example, if you use natural gas or electricity for cooking, you might have a propane camp stove, a solar oven, and a Dutch oven (for use over a campfire) as back-ups in case the electrical or natural gas grids go down due to weather, violence, or other catastrophe. At our house, besides redundant heating, we stock sleeping bags, thermal underwear. Plans are afoot to set up canopy beds during the winter.

Substitution. If we can’t get natural gas, maybe we use propane, wood, or electricity. If we can’t get electricity, maybe we use candles, batteries, and a small generator. If the heat doesn’t work, we put on extra layers of clothes and coats.

Storage. We keep supplies of important items (like food, water, medications) on hand in case there are problems with production and distribution in the just-in-time inventory systems of our modern economy.

Evacuation. If our infrastructure degrades, and we learn that other places are fine, we may decide to evacuate our home and temporarily move to another area which retains services.

There are two primary design responses to the possibility of infrastructure/service failure.

1. Working with our communities, we protect ourselves by designing and implementing more persistent systems of services that are less likely to be degraded or fail under the pressure of challenges and threats in the future. We look for and eliminate the chains of negative connections integrated with our infrastructure that cause them to be brittle and at risk of failure. We look for and integrate chains of beneficial connections to boost the persistence of our systems. We don't locate critical facilities in places at risk. Where possible, we use natural processes and ecosystem services to protect ourselves and our infrastructures. We want infrastructure that is hard to break or degrade and easy to repair.
2. Working with our communities, we develop strategies for coping with infrastructure failure (redundancy, substitution, storage, evacuation). The more people in an area the store food and water, first aid supplies, and have alternative systems for cooking and light, the better situated the area is to cope with challenging circumstances.